Red Bull motorsports consultant Dr Helmut Marko says that Max Verstappen should be much further ahead of Lewis Hamilton in the 2021 Formula 1 championship battle if not for the loss of 50 points through no fault of his own.
Verstappen extended his lead over the reigning world champion to 12 points after taking victory in the most recent United States Grand Prix, with Hamilton having to settle for second place.
Marko singled out races at Silverstone, Baku and the Hungaroring as examples of where Verstappen had previously suffered from unfortunate events beyond his control.
"We innocently lost Baku, lost Silverstone and lost Hungary," Marko asserted. "If you calculate the amount of points we lost carefully, then it's over 50 points in those three races."
Verstappen was leading in the Azerbaijan Grand Prix when his tyre exploded with five laps to go. In Britain he was spun off on the first lap after contact with Hamilton who went on to win the race despite picking up a penalty for causing the collision.
And in Hungary, Verstappen was once again hit by a Mercedes - this time that of Hamilton's team mate Valtteri Bottas - and laboured to finish in ninth place in heavily damaged car.
That left Verstappen 12 points behind going into the summer break, but since then the tide has turned in the Dutch driver's favour and he's won three of the last six races and second in two more.
"Before the last three races, we actually feared that we would be significantly behind," Marko admitted in an interview with Motorsport.com this week.
"The bottom line is that we scored more points than Hamilton in those Grand Prixs," he pointed out. "Mainly because of Hamilton's race in Turkey where he was only fifth, while Max finished second in Sochi. Certainly by luck as well, because of the rain.
"As a result we are only 12 points ahead now," he added. "So we have survived all those setbacks and we have also been able to match the upswing from Mercedes."
Turning to the last five races of the current season, Marko agreed that there was work to do if Verstappen was to come out on top, and for Red Bull to close the gap in the constructors standings.
"If we win the next two races then it's sixty-forty for Max," he estimated.
"Looking at the remaining races I think we have to win at least two more races to be reasonably safe," he said. "Or let's say, confident going into the final race.
"The high altitude tracks of Brazil and Mexico should suit us significantly better, it's just that so much has already happened this season," he said explaining why this year's titles were still so hard to call for either team.
"So-called Mercedes tracks weren't Mercedes tracks in the end and the same goes for Red Bull tracks," he said. "It's so balanced that the form of the day, the tarmac and even the temperatures are extremely important.
"Mercedes is much quicker to get their car to the right set-up. We have a more complex car and on average it takes us longer to do it," he conceded. "Overall it's the driver who makes the difference.
"There are only two drivers who always get the maximum out of it. That's Hamilton at Mercedes, and Max with us.
"In the end these two exceptional drivers keep this duel going, no matter if it's the Mercedes car or the Red Bull that is faster.
"Those drivers are so strong that Verstappen can even beat a faster Mercedes on hard tyres."
"[As for] the number two drivers - Perez thank God is on the up, but also Bottas. He did a sensational race in Turkey and more than average in Austin."
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