Verstappen keeping it real: 'Red Bull not ready to win in Melbourne'

As Formula 1 prepares to launch a radically new era in Melbourne next week – with fresh regulations and entirely new power units – Max Verstappen is striking a notably cautious tone.

While rivals have eyed Red Bull as an early benchmark after a tidy Bahrain test, the four-time world champion insists expectations need to be dialled back.

This is the Dutchman’s 12th season in the sport. He knows how these resets work. And despite smooth early running, he does not see himself charging to victory at Albert Park.

Reflecting on pre-season testing, Verstappen was nevertheless encouraged by Red Bull’s operational sharpness, especially given the scale of change behind the scenes.

"Overall, I feel positive in the sense that we had very few problems," he told Viaplay, looking back on the test days in Bahrain.

"I still find it quite special that we had everything so well under control, with such a new engine and, in general, with so many new people joining. So from that perspective, I’m very happy."

‘We still need to make a step’

But reliability alone does not win Grands Prix. And when it comes to outright pace, Verstappen was blunt.

"If you look at performance, I do think we still need to make a step to truly compete at the front," he continued.

"Because at the moment, I don’t think we will be fighting for the win. You have to stay realistic. But it was also not our expectation that this would immediately be the case, with the introduction of these new regulations and with our own engine."

That realism cuts against the paddock chatter. Mercedes’ George Russell and others have pointed to Red Bull as a potential early powerhouse. Verstappen’s response? A sharp dose of perspective.

"That’s probably because they didn’t expect it either," he said about the reaction from rivals in the paddock to Red Bull’s productive test outings.

"They probably thought the engine would just blow up. So in that regard, we’ve simply done an excellent job and we have things well under control. We can definitely be proud of that.

"On the other hand, we know we still have work to do to find more power," he later added. "But that’s no surprise to us. So where we are now, we can be proud, but of course we always want to improve.

“As winners, that’s the mentality I have and the team has. We’re realistic about the fact that it won’t be easy. At the same time, we have the ambition to make steps."

The Melbourne Problem

If Bahrain offered a relatively forgiving test bed, Melbourne presents a different challenge entirely – especially in the complex area of energy management, a massively important component of F1’s new engine regulations.

Verstappen acknowledged there “are still many things you need to fine-tune".

“Also on the engine side,” he added. “The regulations are so complicated that there’s always something you can improve. That’s what we’re very busy with at the moment.

“Of course, I can’t go into detail about what we’re working on, but there is always room for improvement."

He then zeroed in on a key variable.

"You always have to take into account the temperature of the engine itself, but also the conditions. That always has a big influence on engine performance. I think that’s an area where we can still make a step."

Long Straights and Few Heavy Braking Zones

Albert Park’s layout – long straights, limited heavy braking zones – only magnifies the strain on energy deployment.

"It will be more difficult there than in previous years,” the Dutchman conceded. “Some circuits have always been slightly better for energy than others. But now it’s quite extreme.

“Bahrain is one of the better circuits on the calendar in that respect, so you don’t see as much of the need to reduce speed – although it’s still there.

“But Melbourne is one of the least favourable circuits in this regard, because you have very few heavy braking zones and a lot of long straights.

“So that will be very difficult. Small differences and details in how you charge the battery – how you do that as a manufacturer – have a huge impact on performance. It’s very complicated. To get that as optimal as possible, we’re spending a lot of time in the simulator."

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As for whether Red Bull will unveil a radically different car in Australia? Verstappen could not resist a dry quip.

"No, I don’t think so. The colours will stay nicely the same,” he mischievously fired back.

"The parts will look fairly similar. But throughout the season, you will see major changes at many teams."

For now, Verstappen is tempering the noise. Reliable? Yes. Encouraging? Certainly. Title favourites? Not yet.

In Melbourne, survival and optimisation may matter more than swagger – and even the sport’s most dominant driver is keeping his expectations firmly in check.

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