Russell's bold claim: Five laps will tell Mercedes ‘2025 story

George Russell heads into the 2025 Formula 1 season with a new sense of responsibility as the recognized team leader at Mercedes following Lewis Hamilton's departure to Ferrari.

And the Briton has made a bold prediction: he'll know within "five laps" of driving the new Mercedes W16 whether the team is set for a successful season, or not.

After a 2024 season marked by inconsistent performance and a drop to fourth in the constructors' championship, Russell says Mercedes has put in extra effort to ensure a smoother campaign.

“I think within five laps you know if you’re in for a good season or not,” he said, quoted by Motorsport Week after speaking earlier this week at F1’s season presentation in London.

“And we’ve known within the first five laps of the last couple of years that we wouldn’t be fighting for the championship.

“Or at least we knew we wouldn’t be fighting at the beginning of the season.

“So I feel that, as I said, it’s been much more robust this season, but all of the teams are so competitive now.

A More Thorough Off-Season Approach

Russell acknowledged that the team’s development simulations indicate a substantial performance gain compared to last season’s inconsistent W15.

However, he remains cautious, citing past issues with car development translating to real-world performance.

“If we bring the performance that we expect, it should be a good step forward,” he stated. “But we’ve seen it with many other teams; they bring an upgrade, and it doesn’t work.

“So there’s never guarantees, but as a team, we obviously went through such a lull throughout 2023 not winning a race.

“There was a big restructure change with James Allison [Mercedes Technical Director] coming back, and he’s really been pushing at the helm of the new approach.

“I think hopefully we’ll see a bit of that into 2025. Obviously, 2026 is a big one, but I’m optimistic we can have a decent season.”

Understanding Past Struggles

Mercedes' return to ground-effect cars in 2022 came with unexpected challenges, particularly the infamous porpoising issues that plagued their performance.

Russell admitted that the bouncing problems masked deeper flaws in the car, making it difficult for the team to identify and rectify weaknesses.

“I think in 2022 there were more issues with the car than first met the eye,” he explained.

“And everything was dominated by bouncing, and we couldn’t unpick what was bouncing and what were poor characteristics within the car. So it took a good 18 months to solve bouncing.

“Then we recognised we had a bit of a problem with the suspension. We changed the suspension. Then that caused the balance problem.

“And these things, it does just take time. And I think when something clicks and something works, you sometimes also don’t know quite why that is.”

Russell emphasized the complex interplay of factors that contribute to a car's performance.

“We went to Vegas last year and dominated. I’d love to tell you exactly why that is. We’ve got some ideas why that could be.

“But there’s not a silver bullet saying that is the reason why you were so strong there. And that is the reason we were so weak elsewhere.

“And I think that’s the case with everyone. Even McLaren, for example. I don’t think even they believed they could find the performance that they did. It’s just all got to work together.”

Much More Confident This Year

Despite the inherent uncertainties, Russell expressed greater confidence in Mercedes' preparations for 2025

“As I said, I’m more confident this year with the work we’ve done on the sim. We’ve got some really great simulator drivers who are putting in lots of effort.

“Kimi [Antonelli]’s been doing some really great work as well. I’m much more confident we’re not going to fall into a trap as we have in previous years.”

©Mercedes

With a new car, a restructured team, and a renewed sense of optimism, Russell believes Mercedes is poised for a stronger showing in 2025.

And, as he boldly claims, he'll know within five laps whether that optimism is well-founded.

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