Brawn expects 'big three' to lock up podium places in 2018

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Formula 1's director of motorsports Ross Brawn expects all of this season's podium places to be the exclusive preserve of Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull.

Brawn suggested that the top three teams were so far ahead of the mid-field in terms of performance that it was unlikely that any of them could bridge the gap to finish any of 2018's 21 Grand Prix races in the top three.

Last year the only driver to successfully break the stranglehold was Lance Stroll. The Williams driver finished in third place in the 2017 Azerbaijan Grand Prix.

“In less than two weeks, we'll be racing in Baku," Brawn commented this week. "Which last year saw the only podium appearance of a driver from outside the top three teams.

“Could the return to this very different street circuit throw up a result outside of the top three teams?" he asked rhetorically.

"On current form it looks highly unlikely."

Brawn was basing his view on what he'd seen so far in the first three races of the season. Although in each case the win had been hard-fought, the race had effectively been two separate categories.

“As was the case in Bahrain, and again in China, the gap between the first three and the rest of the pack was far too big,” he admitted.

Brawn objects to 'dumbing down' criticism

Brawn went on to analyse the events in Shanghai in more detail.

“On lap 16, prior to the run of pit stops the gap from leader Vettel to seventh-placed Kevin Magnussen was over 35 seconds," he pointed out.

"The Dane was already trailing Ricciardo, the next man in front, by 20 seconds."

The field had been closed together by a safety car following a clash between the Toro Rossos at the hairpin. Marshalls needed to clean up debris which couldn't be done under local yellows or a virtual safety car.

“The safety car mixed things up," Brawn acknowledged. "But not enough to see a driver from the second group join the fight for podium places.”

Brawn was at least cheered to see some dramatic overtaking action in the race, with Red Bull's Daniel Ricciardo using fresh tyres to scythe his way to the front for a famous victory.

Brawn is currently leading a project to look into ways of improving on-track overtaking from 2021. Any potential solutions could be introduced into the sport as early as next season as long as teams agree by the end of May.

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Andrew Lewin

Andrew first became a fan of Formula 1 during the time when Michael Schumacher and Damon Hill were stepping into the limelight after the era of Alain Prost, Nigel Mansell and Aryton Senna. He's been addicted ever since, and has been writing about the sport now for nearly a quarter of a century for a number of online news sites. He's also written professionally about GP2 (now Formula 2), GP3, IndyCar, World Rally Championship, MotoGP and NASCAR. In his other professional life, Andrew is a freelance writer, social media consultant, web developer/programmer, and digital specialist in the fields of accessibility, usability, IA, online communities and public sector procurement. He worked for many years in magazine production at Bauer Media, and for over a decade he was part of the digital media team at the UK government's communications department. Born and raised in Essex, Andrew currently lives and works in south-west London.