Red Bull chief technical officer Adrian Newey admits that a conservative approach to the design of the team’s 2024 car could leave the Milton Keynes-based outfit behind its rivals if the latter have followed more radical design paths.
Red Bull's RB19, which spearheaded the team's remarkable 2023 season, securing 21 race victories and 860 championship points, stands as a testament to the reigning world champions’ engineering prowess.
The car's success, built upon the foundations of the ground effect regulations introduced in 2022, further cemented Red Bull's position at the front of F1’s field.
However, as the regulations mature and rival teams adapt, history has shown a tendency for the field to converge, with the leading teams facing “diminishing returns” on their development efforts as Red Bull team boss Christian Horner explained.
“I’m fully expecting with stable regulations, [there’ll be] diminishing returns for us, because I think we got to the top of the curve quicker than others,” said Horner recently.
“The field is going to converge. For us, it’s difficult to know who that will be. Will it be McLaren? Will it be Ferrari? Will it be Mercedes? It keeps moving around behind us. But that’s what we’re fully expecting going into [this] year.”
Last year, as Red Bull’s engineers laid out the groundwork for the design of their 2024 contender, they faced a strategic dilemma: should they continue to refine their existing concept or embark on a radical redesign?
In the case of Red Bull’s RB20, which will be unveiled on February 15th, Newey revealed the team's decision to prioritize incremental development over a complete overhaul.
This decision reflects the risk associated with radical departures from a proven concept, especially in the face of limited development resources.
"It is very much a third evolution of the 2022 car," Newey told Red Bull’s in-house Talking Bull podcast of the RB20.
"Last year's car was an evolution of the 2022 car, with its main points [of development] being the normal winter development in terms of aerodynamics, some understanding on what we need to do with suspension to try and improve the car.
"We never got down to the weight limit in 2022 and this year's car is the third evolution of that original RB18.”
Despite the sport’s regulation stability, it’s likely that several of Red Bull’s closest rivals have taken bolder design risks in a bid to bridge the gap with the reigning world champions.
After a succession of disappointing seasons that have thrown it off its pedestal, Mercedes has revealed that it will field a completely different car this year, while rumors in Maranello also claim that Ferrari’s SF-24 is a departure from its predecessor.
Newey recognizes that there is a risk that playing it safe may backfire on Red Bull.
"Now what we don't know is will the third evolution be too conservative while others have done something different. We just don't know,” he added.
"It is difficult and there is that kind of 'should we have a group that goes out and looks at left-field ideas?' or do we keep developing the route we've taken.
"We're resource-limited - so we can't do everything, we can't look at every avenue.
“So we've taken the approach of developing what we've got, and hopefully that will be the prudent and correct decision."
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