F1 TV commentator Jolyon Palmer believes the Las Vegas Grand Prix could prove a pivotal moment in the 2025 Drivers’ championship for Max Verstappen, if the Dutchman delivers a win next weekend in Brazil.
Verstappen currently sits third in the standings, 36 points behind leader Lando Norris, who seized the top spot after a dominant victory in Mexico City.
With just four races remaining, Brazil looms large, offering a circuit where Verstappen triumphed in dominant fashion last year. Forecasted wet weather could further play to the Red Bull driver’s strengths, given his skill on damp tracks.
“I think it's still just about in his hands,” Palmer told the F1 Nation podcast. “I was trying to figure this out. Mexico was a hit because Lando's points gap went up, even if the gap to Oscar went down.
“If he wins in Brazil, I think it will be in the balance. If he can win there, the gap will be less than 30.”
Vegas: The Big Opportunity
While a victory in Brazil is crucial, Palmer points to Las Vegas two weeks later as the weekend that could truly swing the championship.
“Vegas is going to be the big opportunity where you've got Mercedes, who will be quick. They're always quick in Vegas.
“Ferrari is a wild card. McLaren could easily end up being sixth and seventh. That'll be the opportunity for Max to get 15 points out of the McLarens in Vegas.”
With McLaren potentially struggling, Verstappen could indeed capitalize and close the gap significantly. Palmer’s analysis didn’t stop there. He emphasized Verstappen’s knack for thriving under pressure:
“It's in his hands to get it down to the wire,” the Briton added. “If you're Max now with four races to go, you've got to just think, 'let's get the gap as close as it can be for Abu Dhabi', and then the pressure is on McLaren.
“We've seen so many strange things in season finales where, especially a team like McLaren, if they've got two drivers in the fight by then, start to jeopardise themselves by trying to do all this fairness talk.
“It's the chance for Max to do something special from a little bit further back.
“So probably it's in his hands to get close. Let's say that, and then anything can happen at the end.”
With the championship still technically in Verstappen’s grasp, Palmer’s analysis frames Brazil and Vegas as must-win weekends for the Dutchman.
Successive wins could set up a thrilling finale in Abu Dhabi, where the pressure will squarely fall on McLaren to defend their lead – and Verstappen could seize his fifth world title if he plays his cards right.
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