The FIA is confident that Formula 1 will conclude its 2026 campaign in Qatar and Abu Dhabi as scheduled, but Carlos Sainz isn’t ready to share the optimism expressed by president Mohammed Ben Sulayem earlier this week.
With the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran continuing to destabilise the Middle East, the Williams driver believes it is too early to take the final two rounds for granted.
The races are scheduled for the end of November and the first weekend of December, yet the political and security landscape could look dramatically different by then.
F1 management and the FIA remain hopeful that both events can proceed, having received assurances from relevant stakeholders. Behind the scenes, however, contingency planning reportedly includes the possibility of moving the season finale to Imola should circumstances force a change.
Speaking ahead of this weekend’s US Grand Prix in Austin, Sainz questioned the confidence surrounding the current schedule, warning that the next six weeks could bring unexpected developments.
‘Very difficult to be convinced’
The Spaniard, who serves as a director of the Grand Prix Drivers’ Association (GPDA), stressed that his concerns were personal rather than an official position on behalf of the drivers.
“They seem very convinced that it's going to go ahead,” Sainz said on Thursday at COTA.
“I think on my personal side, and not speaking as a GPDA, it's very difficult to be convinced right now because there's still plenty of things happening in the Middle East.
“And also there is obviously an election that is going to happen in the US and things that are going to happen in the political side of the world that could affect the next month and a half very suddenly. So, I think it's relatively premature to be so convinced.”
The US midterm elections on November 3 add another variable to an already volatile situation. Meanwhile, reports of possible further military action by the United States and Israel only reinforce the uncertainty surrounding the final races.
For F1, the challenge is not simply whether the events can be organised, but whether the security situation will justify sending teams, drivers and thousands of travelling personnel into the region.
Drivers prepared to follow F1’s lead – for now
Despite his reservations, Sainz acknowledged that the championship’s decision-makers have access to information that drivers do not, leaving the grid with little choice but to trust their judgement.
“As it stands, we would go to Qatar and Abu Dhabi and if the FIA and Formula 1 decide that's still safe and a good scenario, I think we as drivers have to go with whatever they say,” the Spaniard added.
“It's not like we don't have as much inside information as they have, so we need to follow their lead and trust in their decision making.
“But only as it stands, I think the world can change a lot in the next month and a half. So we need to be [reactive] to whatever happens and not just go because we want to go right now.”
F1’s calendar currently remains unchanged, but Sainz believes that commitment must be conditional on events beyond the paddock’s control.
With the championship approaching its conclusion, the sport could yet face a difficult decision between sticking to its schedule and responding to a rapidly changing security landscape.
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