Daniel Ricciardo believes he'll have to wait until 2020 to become a regular podium contender in F1 with his future team Renault.
The Aussie will be moving from Red Bull Racing to the French outfit next season, but barring any exceptional circumstances he doesn't believe Renault will be in a position to challenge for a spot among the top-3.
"I think it's realistic to think a podium 'shoey' could come in 2020," Ricciardo told Sky F1's Paul di Resta.
"I don't want to count off a podium next year but I think realistically it has to come under some circumstances, if it's a bit of a crazy race like Baku 2016 or something.
"I think it's going to take another 12 months to be a podium contender but that's the trajectory they're on."
Ricciardo's projections make come as a disappointment to his fans but the 29-year-old insists his situation wouldn't have been any better had he chosen to remain with Red Bull who will be switching from Renault to Honda next season.
"I really see it hard at the moment for anyone to fight for a title other than Ferrari and Mercedes in the next 12 months," said the Honey Badger.
"Obviously Red Bull are an unknown now with Honda, but still the odds are with Ferrari and Mercedes."
"I kind of feel like 2019 is going to be a building year, regardless of where I was going to be, so we'll try and do what we can next year but attack in 2020."