After last year's phenomenal display of dominance by Red Bull and by Max Verstappen in particular, many expected 2024 to be more of the same. But it isn't working out quite to plan.
Verstappen claimed seven back-to-back poles to open the season with, but he's since been pipped to the top spot in qualifying by Charles Leclerc, George Russell and Lando Norris in Monaco, Montreal and Barcelona respectively.
While he battled back to win the last two races, none of them have been the walk in the park that it looked last year when Red Bull swept all but one victory over the course of the 22-race season.
A rare mechanical failure for Red Bull allowed a post-surgery Carlos Sainz to win in Melbourne, while fortunate safety car timing helped Norris claim his maiden F1 victory in Miami last month.
Charles Leclerc became the first Monegasque to win his home race in the modern Formula 1 era, but it was Verstappen sinking to just fifth place in the principality that could prove even more significant in the longer term.
Verstappen still has an impressive 69 point lead over Norris in the drivers championship after the first ten races. But that compares to a 99 point lead over his Red Bull team mate Sergio Perez at the same stage 12 months ago.
Red Bull motorsports consultant Dr Helmut Marko is concerned that Verstappen's incredible skills in the cockpit are papering over some cracks that have started to appear in the team's performance this year.
“Max cannot drive a whole season on the limit," Marko told Austrian publication OE24 in the run-up to Red Bull's home race at the Red Bull Ring in Austria this weekend.
“Max wins because he is so confident, not because the car is so good," he said, pointing to the winning moves he made on Norris and Russell in Spain last weekend.
"The overtaking manoeuvre with which he took the lead was extraordinary even for him," Marko stated, comparing it to the ongoing struggles of Perez who has dropped to fifth in the championship behind Ferrari duo Leclerc and Sainz.
“Checo started much further back," Marko acknowledged, referring to Perez having a grid penalty held over from Montreal. "But it's true, now that everything is so close together you can't afford weaknesses.”
As well as a tightening battle with McLaren and Ferrari, it now seems that Mercedes are moving back into the mix after struggling in recent seasons since the reintroduction of ground effect aerodynamics to F1 in 2022.
Marko explained that the revival of their old foe's fortunes might actually work to their advantage this year.
"If Mercedes is there now, it will work out well for us and our calculations of the world championship," he said, after Lewis Hamilton finished on the podium with Russell fourth, pushing the two Ferrari drivers down to fifth and sixth.
The result meant that Leclerc slipped behind Norris in the current standings albeit only by two points, although Russell and Hamilton are too far back to be in contention for the title.
Red Bull have more than twice the points of Mercedes, and have a 60 point lead over Ferrari after Spain. But again, that compared with the 108 point lead that Red Bull had after the first ten rounds of 2023.
If Marko is truly getting worried about the trend in F1, then his counterparts at rival teams can only be getting increasingly encouraged.
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