Mercedes strategy director James Vowles believes the recent gains made by the Brackley squad relative to its rivals mean that it can perhaps "make things happen" in Brazil next week.
Mercedes will head to the penultimate round of the 2022 F1 world championship on the back of two strong races, in Austin and Mexico City, where Lewis Hamilton finished runner to the unassailable Max Verstappen.
Slowly but surely, Mercedes has extracted more performance from its W13 silver arrow, having gained over the season a clear understanding of its car's aerodynamic complexities and problems.
Vowles justified Mercedes' upswing of late by an update implemented in Austin to which the team added a new front wing in Mexico City. But the profile of both tracks also catered to its car's high-downforce qualities.
©Mercedes
"I think there are a few factors that came together at the same time," Vowles explained in Mercedes post-race debrief on YouTube.
"The first is that we put a large update kit on in Austin and that did move us forward, and that evidence was even more present really in Mexico.
"The second is that we are very good when we are running maximum downforce and others running maximum downforce as well, and that was evident in Zandvoort, in Budapest for example, and it was no different in Mexico.
"In Mexico everyone really was running their maximum rear wing, their maximum amount of downforce that they could get away with.
"I think also Austin being a very tricky windy conditioned race meant that perhaps we didn't see the full extent of the performance update, whereas in Mexico there was no real wind to speak of. We have a car now that seems to be balanced and is working well."
However, past performances are not an indicator of future results warns Vowles who believes that Mercedes' form may "vary" from Brazil to Abu Dhabi.
"How it performs across the next two is hard to tell, obviously in the case of Mexico it looked a little bit like that Ferrari actually dropped back, and I suspect that won't be the case as we move forwards," said the Briton.
"I think this will really vary track on track. Ferrari won't be that far back and away from us as they were in Mexico. They will be closer in Brazil and in Abu Dhabi, and it will be a very close fight between our two teams.
"In terms of relative to Red Bull, they still hold the edge relative to us. I don't think it is quite the three tenths they outqualified us by, but it will be a few tenths across the next few races."
©Mercedes
As Mercedes' tireless efforts to improve its car bear fruit, Vowles believes its drivers' are now "within a wisker" of delivering to the German outfit its first win of the season, even if on paper Interlagos' layout and download levels may not favour its silver arrow.
"We are getting closer and closer, compared to where we were at the beginning of the season, where at times we were struggling to get out of Q1 or into Q3, to where we are now which is we are within a whisker of fighting for our first win," he said.
"We have moved forward.
"In Brazil, it's a track that both of our drivers have typically gone well at, and there's a sprint race where we can pick up more points.
"And when you have a car within a few tenths of your competition, you can make things happen."
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