F1 manufacturers' perfect storm: who could jump ship?

©Mercedes

Mercedes

If you're the CEO of Daimler, you must have more important things on your desk this morning than worrying about a side show such as Formula 1. Coronavirus has sent the automotive industry into a steep downward spiral, and even brands as successful as Mercedes-Benz are inevitably going to take a massive hit. Justifying spending hundreds of millions of dollars on a vanity project is no longer realistic to a business battling for its very survival.

Even before the outbreak, there had been questions over whether the new management at Daimler was really all that keen to take their successful F1 project any further. After a record six consecutive team and driver championships (seven, if 2020 had gone to plan), what's still in it for them? If they continue to win then fans will just roll their eyes at the Silver Arrows' "boring" domination of the sport; and if they don't, and start to lose, then the negative publicity will dim the lustre of the marque as a whole. In many ways, Mercedes has little to gain and much to lose by remaining in F1.

The end result? A manufacturer happy to move on after banking its unprecedented successes in the sport.

Then there's the rapidly changing situation in engine technology, and the shift away from internal combustion engines towards electric power which will only be accelerated by a growing number of government bans on cars using the former in years to come. Mercedes has already demonstrated how seriously it takes this with the way it ruthlessly culled its participation in DTM in favour of belatedly entering the Formula E series, which is more in line with its plans for its range of street cars. Even the pioneering hybrid power units that Mercedes helped champion in F1 are looking increasingly like anachronistic dead ends. While fine to keep around as legacy projects for the short term, it's hard to see the company wanting to invest vast sums on successor programmes once the technical rules are overhauled.

Furthermore, the rumors of Toto Wolff's alleged association with Lawrence Stroll and Aston Martin in 2021 or at some point in the future, while repeatedly denied by the Austrian, just won't go away. And that prospect, as remote as Wolff wants its to appear, might well convince Lewis Hamilton to march towards the alluring gates of the House of Maranello. The end result? A manufacturer happy to move on after banking its unprecedented successes in the sport. Even the supply of Mercedes engines to customer teams will probably last only as long as the technology conforms with its electric ambitions. But in the wake of the economic damage wrought by COVID-19, the looming deadline to decide about recommitting to F1 long term could end up forcing their hand and bring about a far more rapid end to the 'Silver Age' of motorsport than anyone ever foresaw.