Max Verstappen will start Sunday’s Belgian Grand Prix from fourth on the grid after an impromptu set-up change in Q3 left the Red Bull driver more than three tenths off pole-sitter Lando Norris.
The reigning world champion appeared poised to challenge for pole at Spa-Francorchamps following his Sprint win earlier in the day. But a decision to revert his car’s set-up to a higher downforce configuration for anticipated wet conditions on Sunday coupled with another tweak in Q3, undermined his final run, opening the door for McLaren to lock out the front row.
Having comfortably advanced through Q1 and Q2, Verstappen’s first flying lap in Q3 on a used set of softs lacked bite, placing him over five-tenths off Norris’ early benchmark. But it was on the second attempt that the trouble really surfaced.
“Q3 wasn’t very good for whatever reason, the first set just didn’t have the same grip,” Verstappen told reporters after the session. “When normally you make nice progression, I couldn’t at all.
“And in the second set, we tried something, and that basically backfired, unfortunately, because already starting the lap, I had so much wheelspin that I couldn’t put the power down. Then the same out of Turn 1, just wheelspin up until fourth gear or something, which, yeah, lost me like two tenths already.
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“Now, even with, let’s say, not being entirely happy with the balance, and losing two tenths in Turn 1, then it actually looks quite ok.
“But, yeah, it was just not what I hoped for. It’s still… the balance is not where I want it to be to really attack around here.”
Verstappen ultimately ended up fourth, narrowly behind Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and over three-tenths behind Norris, who clinched his fourth pole of the season.
Podium Now the Target, Not Victory
While Verstappen’s Sprint win showcased strong race pace earlier in the day, his downbeat tone in the aftermath of qualifying suggested a realistic, not optimistic, outlook for Sunday’s Grand Prix, especially with rain in the forecast.
“Well, normally not,” Verstappen replied when asked if he could challenge for the win. “Because McLaren is even stronger in the wet than in the dry.
“Because the overheating is even bigger, of course, on an Intermediate, so they have that really well under control. For me, the goal is at least P3.”
Verstappen acknowledged the team’s recent upgrades have yielded some progress, but not enough to unlock the car’s full potential in tricky conditions like Spa.
“Yeah, I guess so – but it’s still not where I need it to be to really attack, because I still feel this car is limiting me to go really fast,” he said.
Overtaking Outlook Hinges on Weather
Looking ahead to race day, Verstappen admitted that his chances of recovering depend heavily on the track conditions – suggesting that dry running would leave him boxed in behind rivals, while variable weather could create opportunities.
“Depends on the weather – I mean, of course, if it’s wet and then it starts to dry up, there’s always a lot of chaos,” he explained. “So then, naturally, there will be overtaking.
“Yeah, in the dry, I mean, once you get stuck in a DRS train a little bit, it can be quite painful. I had that last year because I had to start a bit further back.
“Now, I think my battle, if it’s wet or dry, I think it will be with Charles. So I don’t think… If I get held up anyway with Charles or whatever, then McLarens already 10 seconds off the road.
“So, yeah. We just need to target the podium. I think that’s realistic.”
Verstappen’s tone may have been frustrated, but not resigned. If Spa’s famously volatile skies deliver on their forecast, the Dutchman will still back himself to mount a charge.
But after Saturday’s gamble went wrong, the climb to the top step looks steeper than ever.
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