Abu Dhabi's 16-turn 5.2km circuit features two lengthy straights, including the 1.2km back straight between Turns 5 and 6 where cars reach maximum speeds in excess of 330 km/h.
Downforce is less of an issue at Yas Marina, and leaves teams with a genuine choice.
The long power-limited sections make the Yas Marina Circuit a trade-off in terms of where one produces the lap-time: add a little more downforce, go quicker through the corners; take off some downforce and produce the lap-time on the straights.
Teams usually start their weekend with a higher downforce option and potentially trim levels through Friday to select the best compromise in terms of stability, drag and competitiveness, not to mention all-important tyre degradation.
The indication on Friday was that Lando Norris’ downforce was superior to Max Verstappen’s top speed. However, there was also evidence of sandbagging in the Red Bull camp on Friday, with the Dutchman braking early in two corners, which made his best lap in FP2 look slower.
It all came to light in qualifying, with Max claiming pole with a blistering fast lap that outpaced Norris by 0.201s, with the Dutchman’s Red Bull among the fastest cars on Yas Marina’s back straight.
However, Verstappen’s long-run pace – the focus of Friday’s programme in FP2 according to Gianpiero Lambiase – was also impressive, which theoretically puts the four-time world champion in a dominant position for Sunday.
Lando Norris will launch his race knowing a third-place finish will be enough to clinch his first championship. With George Russell starting fourth and some way back in terms of pace, the Briton should theoretically breathe a little easier. But in a high-stakes, three-way title showdown, theory rarely matches reality.
Beyond whatever strategic games Red Bull might play or the inevitable wheel-to-wheel drama unfolds, another twist hangs over Sunday: will the Abu Dhabi GP be a clean one-stop race or a chaotic two-stopper? This alone could decide the title battle’s outcome.
Pirelli’s Take on the Strategy Puzzle
Pirelli’s Mario Isola believes the fastest approaches are clear: two viable one-stop strategies dominate the conversation.
“One option is to start on the medium and switch to the hard between laps 20 and 26,” Isola explained. “An alternative is to start on the hard and then take advantage of the soft’s extra performance by stopping between laps 39 and 45.
“A two-stop strategy seems to be a bit less competitive, especially given the difficulty of overtaking here.
“The best way to do it is with a combination of medium and hard for the first two stints, followed by a final stint on the medium – which in theory would be quicker for the run to the flag than the hard or the soft under these circumstances.”
Adding spice to the equation, McLaren holds two fresh sets of hard tyres, designed to resist graining, while Verstappen retains two sets of mediums. Comparative data between the two compounds is scarce, leaving teams to weigh uncertain variables under immense pressure.
Calculations, Permutations – and Verstappen’s All-Out Mindset
Red Bull and McLaren have been burning the midnight oil, running permutations and crunching numbers to prepare for every scenario. But a messy opening lap at Yas Marina could rewrite all pre-planned strategies.
Max Verstappen isn’t overthinking it.
“All out,” the Dutchman said of his race approach. “I have nothing to lose. Of course, we're going to try to win the race. I'm going to defend; if I need to attack I’ll attack.
“Because what can happen? You’re either second or third – or you win. That would be fantastic.”
With strategy guesses and tyre uncertainties swirling, Verstappen’s fearless attitude ensures that the Abu Dhabi finale promises edge-of-your-seat drama from the very first corner. Bring it on!
Read also: Verstappen ready for title showdown but ‘will still need a bit of luck’
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