Mercedes may have just dropped the first thunderclap of the 2026 Formula 1 era – but Martin Brundle is waving a cautious yellow flag before anyone crowns them champions-in-waiting.
After a closed-doors Barcelona shakedown that had paddock insiders whispering and unofficial lap counters spinning, Sky F1’s veteran commentator and analyst believes the Silver Arrows might have cracked the code of the new regulations earlier than anyone else.
Yet, for all the early fireworks, Brundle insists the real verdict is still pending — and the jury should’nt deliberate until the W17 survives the furnace of race-weekend reality.
Barcelona A Warning Shot?
Mercedes didn’t just turn up in Spain – they dominated the mileage charts. While rival teams split their limited running days cautiously, the German outfit racked up a staggering 500 laps across the permitted test window.
That alone raised eyebrows. But what really set tongues wagging, however, was the stopwatch.
George Russell’s blistering 1:16.4 lap held firm near the top of the unofficial timesheets until the dying moments of Day 5, when Lewis Hamilton reportedly shaved it to a 1:16.3.
To put that into perspective, Russell’s earlier benchmark was only seven-tenths off Oscar Piastri’s 2025 Spanish Grand Prix race lap record – set in standard race temperatures, not the cooler testing conditions.
©Mercedes
The message? Mercedes isn’t just experimenting. They’re hunting. And Brundle sees the intent clearly.
“Obviously, it’s a completely different concept of aerodynamics,” he told Sky F1.
“So Mercedes never really aced the ground effect car, did they? They never got it right. Porpoising, and then they had a car, they didn’t understand it performing sometimes and not others, and they didn’t know why.
“So clearly, they look like they’ve sort of aced this completely different set of regulations. But, we need to see what it’s like on normal track temperatures.”
It’s a sharp observation – Mercedes, once kings of hybrid dominance, spent years wrestling the ground-effect era like a lion trapped in a net. Now, with 2026’s sweeping aero reset, they appear to have slipped the leash.
Sweet Spot or Mirage?
The intrigue doesn’t stop at aerodynamics. Energy regeneration and battery deployment – critical pillars of the next-generation power units – could be just as decisive as cornering grip.
Brundle believes Mercedes might already be ahead of the curve there too, though he stops short of calling it a knockout blow.
©Mercedes
“it’s going to be about regeneration and filling their battery back-up,” added the former Grand Prix driver.
“But of course, they’ll regen every bit as well as any other Mercedes-powered car, probably Ferrari-powered car too.
“But it does seem as if they’ve just hit the sweet spot pretty early on a number of things, as I was talking about earlier on.”
“Sweet spot” is the operative phrase – tantalizing, but slippery. Early testing often flatters one team while disguising another’s true hand. What looked like a masterpiece in cool Spanish air might unravel when the calendar hits scorching summer circuits.
Brundle’s Warning: Pump the Brakes
For all the excitement, Brundle is refusing to hand out gold stars just yet. History, especially Mercedes’ own recent history, offers a sobering counterpoint. A car that shines in one condition can wilt in another – and tyre behavior remains the silent assassin of many promising designs.
“Their concept looks good, but it’s too early to say that,” Brundle warns. “And you might have a car that just fires its tyres up brilliantly on a cold day and then overheats them on a hot day, which we’ve seen Mercedes have that problem before.
“So I do think we need to stay calm on it. But, you can’t ignore the relentless pace and reliability that they’ve had, so clearly, they’ve got a really good, cohesive package.”
In other words: the W17 might be a scalpel – or it might be a beautifully polished blunt instrument waiting for the wrong climate to expose it.
Formula 1 has a cruel sense of humor. Cold-weather brilliance doesn’t guarantee summer survival, and pre-season glory has fooled bigger giants before.
Brundle’s take lands somewhere between admiration and restraint: Mercedes may have “aced it” – but until the W17 proves it can dance on every stage, in every temperature, with tyres intact and batteries brimming, the champagne stays on ice.
