Spa-Francorchamps is the longest track on the F1 schedule and - along with Monza - is one of the sport's most power-hungry venues where top speeds reach their highest levels of the season.
But the legendary Ardennes circuit's 7-kilometer layout isn't only about maximum velocity, as its blend of high-speed corners calls for the right compromise between straight-line speed and downforce levels.
However, on Saturday, a typical rainy Spa micro-climate disrupted any straight-forward game plans that teams may have had regarding their circuit-specific aero updates.
As stated above, Spa demands a delicate aerodynamic balance in dry conditions. To optimize performance, teams typically opt for lower-drag wing configurations to reduce aerodynamic resistance without compromising overall downforce.
But wet conditions demand a completely different aerodynamic setup. To maximize grip on slippery surfaces, teams prioritize downforce. This helps keep tyres warm and provides the necessary traction.
Efficiency takes a back seat as top speeds are significantly reduced in wet conditions, allowing for higher downforce configurations without sacrificing overall performance.
Therefore, ahead of Saturday’s wet qualifying, teams had to commit to a specific aero set-up for the remainder of the weekend as F1’s parc fermé rules forbid any configuration changes between qualifying and race day. Each outfit’s dilemma was therefore to either prioritize an optimal grid position or the best race set-up.
These choices were inevitably reflected in Saturday’s speed trap readings from qualifying.
The skinny low-downforce rear wing mounted on Esteban Ocon’s Alpine’s for qualifying allowed the Frenchman – who qualified tenth – to secure bragging rights as the fastest driver in a straight line.
But Max Verstappen, who comfortably topped Q3 and who relied on a higher-downforce rear wing on his Red Bull, was only just marginally slower on Spa’s Kemmel straight than, for instance, his McLaren rivals despite their MCL38 being fitted with a much less loaded rear wing.
Verstappen will be a man on a mission on Sunday, the Dutchman chasing from behind following his ten-place grid penalty. It won’t be much of a deterrence for the intrepid Red Bull charger whose most recent wins at Spa were achieved from similar low-starting positions.
However, McLaren’s strong pace on long runs in Friday’s dry running, rooted in its car’s low-drag set-up, bode well for team papaya’s chances of sealing a second win in succession, if execution is on par with performance.
But in dry conditions, and with stretches of new tarmac laid down at Spa recently, tyre management will once again be paramount.
“Compared to last year, the new track surface has now shifted the balance significantly towards a two-stop strategy,” commented Pirelli F1 boss Mario Isola.
“It also means that the hardest tyre here, the C2, is now much more suitable for the race than it was twelve months ago, to the detriment of the softest C4.
“However, all three compounds are still perfectly viable, also because only four teams – Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes and Alpine – have two sets of Hards available.
“On paper, the fastest strategy is to run the first stint on the Medium before doing a double stint on the Hard.
“The logical alternative is to go Medium/Hard/Medium but the Soft/Hard/Hard and Soft/Hard/Medium options cannot be ruled out.
“The one-stop is too slow, while the three-stop, even on a track where overtaking is definitely possible is, at least according to simulations, not faster.”
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