This weekend, Zandvoort is hosting its penultimate Dutch Grand Prix of F1's modern era, with next year’s race closing the books on an event that many F1 fans, not least Max Verstappen’s orange army, will regret.
Like in Hungary, just before the sport’s summer break, F1 teams are operating once again on a high-downforce layout, and everyone has fine-tuned their package accordingly.
With overtaking at a premium around Zandvoort’s tight and twisty circuit, top speed on the run down to Tarzan corner is a prime asset.
But Williams chargers Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz, who were fastest through the speed trap in qualifying, are unlikely to challenge McLaren’s hegemony on Sunday on maximum velocity alone, or even on any other criteria for that matter.
Poleman Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris were among the laggards – relatively speaking – in terms of top speed in qualifying, but predictably out of reach on single lap pace, which tells us once again all we need to know about the grip and aero efficiency of McLaren’s MCL39 around Zandvoort’s long, medium-speed corners.
However, Max Verstappen’s middle sector on his final flyer in Q3, the fastest of all, offered a subtle clue about the potential he might be able to extract from his Red Bull. A home victory on pure pace is a tall order, but with a spice of ingenuity and Max magic, anything is possible.
As for the battle in the mid-field, we’ll be keeping our eyes on Carlos Sainz who will be starting P9. Williams’ FW47 is fast down the straight, but on Friday, the Spaniard was also among the quickest on the long runs, shod with the medium tyre.
Speaking of Pirelli’s rubber, because track position established on the opening lap is important, most teams are likely to try for a medium-to-hard one stopper, which also allows teams to cover for the possibility of rain or a Safety Car.
As for the undercut, Pirelli notes that it was very effective here last year, which is one more factor for teams to consider in race strategy.
All things considered, Sunday’s Dutch Grand Prix looks like McLaren’s race to lose, with the stage set for a battle royal between Piastri and Norris.
Yet, as ever in Zandvoort’s unforgiving arena, strategy swings, safety cars or a sudden shift in weather could deal a wild card – and that’s where the chasing pack will be waiting to pounce.
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