Mercedes isn’t just gearing up for Formula 1’s new era, they may be preparing to break it according to former Aston Martin F1 strategist and current Sky F1 analyst, Bernie Collins.
The Silver Arrows squad, who famously dominated the 2014-2021 hybrid era with eight consecutive Constructors’ Championships and seven Drivers’ titles, are already being tipped as early favourites under the sport’s new aerodynamic and engine rules.
While the 2026 regulations introduce a massive 50/50 power split between internal combustion and electrical energy, Collins believes the real battle might be won by those who can process information the fastest.
A Multi-Team Learning Curve
Mercedes enters this new frontier with a logistical weapon that standalone manufacturers like Honda simply cannot match. By supplying power units to three customer teams – McLaren, Williams, and Alpine – Mercedes effectively triples its data intake on every single lap of testing and racing.
"I think the status quo will change among the teams because I think it'll be who gets the engine right and who gets the engine wrong," Collins explained during a recent appearance on the Sky Sports F1 Show.
This "engine-first" reality places a massive premium on the Brixworth-designed units. While fans and analysts are desperate for a multi-team title fight, Collins suggests the sheer volume of feedback available to the Silver Arrows could create a runaway lead.
"I think the perception is that Mercedes engine teams will rise to the top. But we don't know. We've not compared them against each other," Collins noted.
"But if nothing else, they've got three teams who they are supplying, so they're going to learn a lot faster than Honda, which is only supplying one team."
The ‘Pain’ of the New Arrivals
While Mercedes looks to leverage its established infrastructure, the narrative for newcomers is significantly more grounded in a brutal reality.
Cadillac is set to join the grid in 2026, but Collins warns that simply showing up to the first race in Melbourne will be a monumental task that mirrors the "survival mode" seen by previous debutants.
Cadillac team principal Graeme Lowden with Valtteri Bottas (©Cadillac).
Recalling the arrival of Haas in 2016, Collins painted a vivid picture of the exhaustion that defines a start-up F1 team.
"Cadillac is going to be a struggle, I think, to get a new team together, to get all the people together, to get the car on the grid," she added.
"Like we had it before in [2016]. Haas joined the grid, and I remember at that point, when I was with McLaren, walking into the track on the Friday morning as the Haas guys were walking out of the track to have a shower to go back to the track.
“That was how much pain they were in to get a new car on the grid for Australia."
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For the American outfit, the definition of "victory" will differ wildly from the championship aspirations of Mercedes.
"So, I think for the Cadillac guys, the job cannot be underestimated," Collins concluded. "If they get that car on the grid in Australia, that will be really good for them. That will be a victory in many ways."
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