The Formula 1 paddock is bracing for a seismic shift when the sport’s new era kicks off in Melbourne in March, and Damon Hill sees a historic upset potentially sitting on the horizon.
With sweeping new regulations looming, the 1996 F1 world champion believes the ingredients are quietly coming together for Aston Martin to spring a shock that could echo one of F1’s most famous fairytales.
The Silverstone-based team has endured a sharp comedown since its stunning rise in 2023, when it briefly emerged as Red Bull’s closest challenger.
Since then, momentum has evaporated. Last year, Aston Martin slipped to seventh in the Constructors’ standings and hasn’t tasted champagne since the 2023 São Paulo Grand Prix.
Yet Hill sees reason for optimism – and it centres on one man. With Adrian Newey now embedded at Aston Martin, the possibility of a “Brawn moment” is no longer fantasy, but a tantalising what-if.
A Regulation Reset Ripe for a Shock
Hill believes Formula 1’s 2026 overhaul could be the great equaliser, opening the door for a dramatic reshuffle at the front of the grid.
“Yes, you could” Hill said to talkSPORT when asked if 2026 could see an upset to Mclaren and Red Bull’s recent dominance. “We could see a complete surprise.”
“Something like when Jenson Button won with Brawn – they surprised everyone because they saw through the regulations.”
It’s a comparison that carries weight. Brawn GP’s astonishing 2009 title double remains the gold standard for exploiting a rule change better than anyone else – and Hill sees parallels in the current landscape, where dominant teams could be caught out while others strike gold.
The Newey Factor at Aston Martin
Central to Hill’s belief is the arrival of Newey, widely regarded as the most influential designer in modern F1 history. His move from Red Bull to Aston Martin raised eyebrows across the paddock — and expectations just as high.
“And the master of seeing through the regulations is Adrian Newey, who’s gone to Aston Martin.
“He left Red Bull and Max Verstappen behind and Christian Horner has left that team anyway, but he’s gone off to Aston Martin.
“He’s been working on this project now for a good 18 months or so, so we’re sort of expecting him to wave his magic wand over Aston Martin.
“It could happen.”
Newey’s long lead time on the 2026 project is a crucial detail. While Aston Martin has yet to unveil its challenger, the groundwork has been quietly laid behind closed doors.
Honda, meanwhile, has already launched its 2026 power unit in Tokyo – even as questions linger over its competitiveness ahead of its full works return.
For Hill, history offers a clear warning to the established order. When regulations change, certainty vanishes – and genius can tilt the balance.
If Aston Martin has truly given Newey the freedom and focus he needs, 2026 might just deliver the kind of shock Formula 1 never sees coming… until it does.
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