Toto Wolff says Mercedes is resisting bringing upgrades to its W13 as adding major new parts would risk confusing its engineers who are still "learning" about the complexities of their car.
After imposing its hegemony in F1 for eight years, Mercedes has found itself suddenly chasing from behind, not only its rivals but also the intricacies and subtleties of its new generation Silver Arrow.
So far, it's 2022 contender has been a tough nut to crack for the reigning world champions, with chronic porpoising and downforce the focus of the Brackley squad's attention, with any attempt to mitigate the former phenomenon directly impacting the latter and vice versa.
Although Mercedes' issues may not get worse before they get better, there is currently no indication, based on the team's latest efforts, that progress is being made.
"I think we’re just learning the car, we’re learning the tyres," Wolff said last weekend in Melbourne, quoted by Motorsport.com.
"Nothing we did this weekend has unlocked the aerodynamic potential or has reduced the bouncing. We’re still at the same place.
"And that’s why it doesn’t make any sense to bring updates, because you’re confusing yourself even more.
"Maybe it’s the fact the more downforce you bring, the worse the bouncing gets. So we are still learning."
At Albert Park, circumstances rather than performance gains delivered a podium finish and his first points with Mercedes to George Russell, while teammate Lewis Hamilton concluded his weekend P4.
After the race, Russell confirmed Wolff's comments regarding Mercedes' freeze on updates.
"Unfortunately, there’s nothing substantial in the pipeline anytime soon," he said. "It’s not going to happen overnight, it’s going to take a number of races.
"I think there’ll be little things, there’ll be incremental steps.
"But we recognise that our rivals are going to be doing the same so it may not be clear to the outside world that we’ve made progress because Ferrari and Red Bull are going to be making progress as well."
Is Mercedes on the path of a resounding defeat in the championship for the first time in eight years?
Wolff admits that it's currently not looking good, but reminds the doubters that "anything can happen" in motor racing.
"If I look at it from a mathematical standpoint, in probability, I would probably say that the odds are two to eight," said the Austrian.
"But this is motor racing and in motor racing, anything can happen. Teams can DNF and if we unlock the potential of the car, we are right back in the game.
"So, as a motor racer, I would say it’s probably 40-60. As a mathematician, the odds are worse against us but third race into the season, we’re not going to write the title off.
"It’s just the current status quo, we are seven-tenths off."
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